What Are The Odds?

Odds. By definition, odds is an alternative way of expressing the likelihood of an event. Swine flu. Drug war. Lottery. For me, all of these things have one thing in common. Odds. You see, I make a number of my decisions based upon the odds. How likely is it that I will get Swine Flu? Or, awhile back I would have said: What are the odds I get bird flu? Do you remember all of the worldwide panic about avian influenza. Guess what? I didn't catch it. Play the lottery? Odds are you won't win. Overwhelmingly against you. This can be said for a lot of things in life. Odds should play a factor in how you live your life. Remember 9/11? How could you not? I remember all of the people that were terrified to get on a plane for months following this tragic event. You guessed it. I took a PLANE trip to Jamaica three weeks after 9/11. The odds were on my side. I knew that there was a 99.99% chance that I would not be involved in a plane crash. My in-laws stayed home and missed out on a free all inclusive vacation. I wonder if they regret not going?

Take for instance, a current trip to Mexico. According to the CIA world fact book, the estimated 2009 population of Mexico is over 111,000,000. This over 100 MILLION!!! As of this morning, approximately 1300 people had contracted swine flu. That is hundreds not MILLIONS. I didn't do the exact math, but that is way less than 1% of the population. Now I know these things can spread, but we are a little smarter than we used to be. We have modern medicine and better communication. I think I probably have a better chance of getting swine flu in Texas, California, Kansas or New York than in Cancun. In case you didn't know, the swine flu has hit those areas of the USA. Would I take a trip to Cancun tomorrow? Heck yes. How many people are going to avoid travel to those four US states I mentioned? Another point to make. Mexico City is where the outbreak took place and it is over 800 miles from Cancun. Worried about the drug cartel violence? The same theories apply. The border towns where the majority of violence has occurred are over 1000 miles from Cancun. If one act of violence occurred in Cancun, then what are the odds that you would be there in the exact place at the exact time? T0 date, I have only seen one publicized event that occurred with a member of the police department. I cannot predict that it wouldn't happen again, but the ODDS say it won't happen to you. Yeah, I could go outside and space debris could land on my head, putting me to an early death, but I'm pretty confident that it won't happen :)

I guess my point is: Don't let fear and media sensationalism run your life. Assess any situation with a little level-headed thinking. What are the ODDS? If you let a less than 1% chance of something bad happening keep you from doing something fun, then I guess you will be like my in-laws :)

Til Next Time,
Tom

PS. I forgot to mention. I don't play the lottery. You see, the odds are against me. Overwhelmingly so.